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An optimistic take on the Apple Vision Pro
With factors that are out of Apple's control, Apple knew it can still benefit from the launch and become the default VR platform of the future
Dissecting the Markets
May 06, 2025
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Time flew by fast! It was last year when $AAPL ( ▲ 0.21% ) launched its Vision Pro VR headset. People were excited despite the steep price tag. The demos were fully booked. Shortly after all the hype, Apple slashed its Vision Pro sales forecast. Sure, the product sold around 200,000 units during its first 10 days of release, and by the end of 2024, it sold 500,000 Vision Pro units total. That means, after the hype faded, it sold 300,000 Vision Pros. This is sales coming across the US, Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, the UK, South Korea, and the UAE.
With a steep price tag of $3,500, those who bought the Vision Pro were either wealthy people who wanted a new way to entertain themselves or developers who could afford the headset and would also like to create apps and content to make the VR headset more useful. Keeping the price tag steep ensures fewer people are buying and using it while also giving developers a head start on the next wave of computing.
Personal Experience Demoing the Vision Pro
As I was doing research for this article, I realized that there’s an abundance of appointments available to try the Apple Vision Pro. I scheduled my appointment the night before and came to the Apple store the next day.
At first, I had issues with putting the headset on as the light seal was too big and would come off when I put the headset on. Thankfully, the Apple rep had a smaller light seal, and the headset fit me.
I’m impressed with how the headset functioned. The hand motions were easy to understand, and even if my hands were on my lap, the headset knew when I wanted to click and when I wasn’t clicking. Since there are many things on the display, the Apple rep told me my eyes were like the mouse on a laptop, where if I wanted to do something, I had to look at the place where I wanted to click and then use my hand motion to click it.
The biggest selling point for the headset (I think) is the depth that the photos you take with the headset bring. When you take a photo or video with the Vision Pro and view it on the headset, it feels like you are there at the moment. All the little things, from how the grass looked to seeing a girl blow her birthday candles and seeing the smoke come my way, were surreal. These are experiences you can’t find in your iPhone 15. And for the movies, when watching a clip from Avatar 2, I was amazed by the 3D quality. It felt like I was in the theater watching the movie in IMAX 3D. Surprisingly, I saw the movie in theaters in IMAX 3D twice. That’s how much I enjoyed the movie.
Overall, the demo experience was enjoyable, and I recommend everyone try it! The reps at the Apple Store don’t pressure you to buy anything. Experiencing the Vision Pro will help you understand why the product is not a flop but instead, a masterpiece.
Photo by Igor Omilaev on Unsplash
There is hope for the Vision Pro product line
Those who thought of giving up on the Vision Pro should look back in time on the release of the Apple Watch. In its first year of release, Apple sold 10 million Watches instead of its projected 40 million unit sales. In 2024, many years after releasing the Apple Watch, Apple now has a 28% market share of the Watch industry. The first generation of a new product may not do as well as the original projections may say, but future generations will lead the growth and adoption of that product and leading to higher sales and profits. The same can be said of the Vision Pro and how bright its future is.
I got a better example: the launch of the first iPhone. When it was first released in 2007, right when the economy was entering the Great Financial Crisis, people thought the iPhone would be a flop because the price was high and the average person at the time wanted a cheap, small phone for calling and texting. While the iPhone gained immense popularity during its first year, sales didn’t surge until the iPhone started having 3G data and the App Store. Like the Vision Pro, there needs to be another feature added to the next version that will cause a spike in its popularity. We might not know what the feature is, but a developer, whether at Apple or anywhere else, could develop it, and that in itself will ignite mass adoption of the Vision Pro.
There’s a tweet made by Sterling Crispin, one of the main developers of the Apple Vision Pro, that I wanted to share with you. To summarize, while he thought the product would flop, he was surprised by how well the product was performing with his pessimistic expectations. The issues he worried about were thoroughly solved. He brings up a great point when he says the Apple Vision Pro is more about it being a failure of design than engineering. There’s still discomfort with wearing the Apple Vision Pro as it’s heavier than the Meta Quest3, and the display needs improvement so it feels more natural to our eyes. While Apple packed a collection of technology into the product, it did so while sacrificing the user experience.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this was true, and I almost panic sold all my Apple shares before the launch of the Vision Pro, because I was certain it would flop. I’m actually surprised it didn’t flop harder and faster. But many of the issues I was worried about were solved so
— Sterling Crispin 🕊️ (@sterlingcrispin)
4:58 PM • Apr 29, 2024
Like we’ve seen with other Apple products, in the beginning, it’s great all while being difficult for users. Then with the next version, it becomes more user-friendly, and so on. We’ve seen this with the iPhones and watches and we will be seeing it with the Apple Vision Pro. The first versions are often catered to the pioneers of new technology that buy it out of curiosity and the next versions are catered to the average person to improve their life.
For creating a product with a fat price tag of $3,500, I guarantee you Apple wasn’t planning on seeing the product be a massive success. The iPhone 16s, ranging from $799 to $1,200, are still acting as a cash cow, but the iPhone lineup as a whole is seeing a decline in shipments due to the increasing cost of their phones. For Apple to make a product that’s above $3,000, that’s stretching consumers’ pockets too far, and the majority would rather try a demo than buy it. Especially with consumer confidence falling due to layoffs, sticky inflation, and concerns over tariffs, there are fewer reasons for Apple to think the Vision Pro would act as the next iPhone.
Personally, I think Apple selling its first VR headset for $3,500 is intriguing. I’m not going to say insane because it was able to sell over 100,000 units, and the reviews of it have been positive. From what the YouTuber Mrwhosetheboss said, getting the developers excited to develop applications for the Apple Vision Pro is the first step in making the VR headset useful to customers. Once more, VR apps are made, Apple will start making more affordable VR headsets, and replicate the success it had in the smartwatch and smartphone industries in the VR industry. From there, Apple will be able to hook people onto its VR platform, and Apple will become the default VR platform.
Speaking of more affordable VR headsets, Bloomberg reported that Apple is making a Vision “Air” product. It could be this year that they’ll release it or next year, but nevertheless, it’s an exciting chapter in the Vision Pro’s journey.
Production issues worth mentioning
Another reason why Apple cut their Vision Pro sales forecasts is because they’re having issues with producing them. The Financial Times noted that the “complexity of the headset design and difficulties in production are behind the scaling back of targets…”. The article notes that Luxshare, Apple’s only assembler of the Vision Pro, plans to produce fewer than 400,000 units in 2024. To make matters worse, two sole suppliers of certain components for the Vision Pro said Apple ordered enough units to produce 130,000 to 150,000 Vision Pros for its first year of production. The lack of confidence Apple has in scaling production of the Vision Pro is the main reason why it’s cutting sales targets.
Also, Apple is having issues with manufacturing the sleek screens for the Vision Pro. These screens, which consist of two micro-OLED displays and a lenticular lens for the outward-facing screen, have encountered manufacturing difficulties. While these items are the most expensive components in the Vision Pro, Apple has been unhappy with the suppliers’ ability to produce them without defects.
In the article, Jay Goldberg, founder of tech consultancy D/D Advisors, brought up a great point regarding the $3,500 price tag was Apple’s way of baking in the cost of production inefficiencies. Goldberg estimates Apple added many of those costs to reduce the losses it will have on the Vision Pro during its first year.
Without the production issues, Apple would’ve been able to price them lower than $3,500. Pricing it at $2,000 would’ve been a great idea, as the product is more complex than an iPhone 16, and it would entice more people to consider trying it out. Meta may have cheaper VR headsets, but they’re mainly used for gaming. The Vision Pro appeals to the average person who wants to be able to use work and creative applications with their VR headset and is probably an Apple user.
Conclusion
For anyone who hasn’t had a demo of the Apple Vision Pro, I recommend you schedule a demo at your local Apple store. Having the experience of using the device will make you realize that it is Apple’s best product ever. Understanding the production issues behind Vision Pro and Apple’s theoretical strategy of using the limited release to encourage developers to create VR applications for it will help you understand where Apple sees itself dominating the VR industry in the future. I don’t consider Apple’s first VR headset a failure for the reasons I’ve described above.
I’m curious to hear your thoughts on the Apple Vision Pro. Do you think it was a failure or not?
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